"Sellers go around": Russian independent e-commerce turnover seen up …

Speaking at the plenary session of the Valdai Discussion Club on 1 October, Vladimir Putin said Russia is actively developing its nuclear forces and that the Strategic Rocket Forces are modernised to just over 98 percent — a level of modernity he said no other nuclear power has. He cited the glide vehicle fielded several years ago, an entirely new missile-defence penetration system and high-technology intermediate-range weapons, while stressing that Russia understands the need for restraint mechanisms.

At Valdai, Putin said that if any Russian region is attacked Russia will use its entire arsenal, and that a point of no return may arrive quickly and unexpectedly. He stressed the need to avoid the use of nuclear weapons and noted a high probability that global conflicts will continue. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov added the same day that Moscow does not plan to use nuclear weapons and that the warning should not be read as confrontational.

As the three-year federal budget draft went to the Duma, spending details emerged: over 50 trillion roubles for national defence in 2027-2029; about 1.78 trillion for education in 2027, about 1.82 trillion for healthcare, and 308.3 billion for culture and cinema. At the same time several items are being cut — state aviation-industry funding by 20% in 2027-2028, aerodrome funding by 40%, Far East air route subsidies by nearly a third, and agricultural financing by a third.

In materials accompanying the three-year budget, the government proposed decoupling the minimum wage from the median wage for 2027-2029. Previously the minimum wage was set as a share of the median wage; after decoupling, its indexation mechanism is to be defined separately. The same package says the maternity capital for a second child will exceed 1 million roubles in 2027 and that caps on sick-leave and maternity benefits will rise.

Speaking about UN reform at Valdai, Putin said it is possible only with broad consensus and voiced support for a fair reform. He also said supplying weapons to conflict zones is considered indecent, and recounted meeting an American ballerina in the Russian Far East. Deputy Foreign Minister Alimov said separately the same day that the UN has grown weary of the Ukraine storyline.

Bloomberg reported on 1 October, citing sources, that Turkey and the UN have opened fresh negotiations with Russia and Ukraine on a Black Sea ceasefire, seeking to bridge the gaps. It is another diplomatic attempt around that theatre following earlier grain and shipping arrangements. Moscow has previously said it is ready for talks on Ukraine taking Russian interests into account.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on 1 October urged the EU to provide additional diesel supplies immediately. Donald Trump said the same day that Washington may ask European countries to release part of their diesel stocks onto global markets, adding that prices are falling. The European Commission consulted member states on releasing reserves, and European countries agreed on a response to US pressure. China was reported earlier to have suspended oil product exports, pushing prices higher.

Russia on 1 October announced the reciprocal expulsion of Hungarian diplomats from Moscow, Kazan and St Petersburg. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the same day that unfriendly actions by Hungary could carry consequences for its own economy; the Kremlin had earlier expressed regret at the absence of dialogue with Europe. The move is seen as Moscows response to recent Hungarian steps.

Britain on 1 October added three Russian Arctic LNG carriers to its sanctions list, and presidential aide Alan Gagloev was also designated the same day. A day earlier London extended permission for Sakhalin-2 LNG shipments to Japan and South Korea. Moscow has repeatedly said sanctions are hampering its energy exports.

Colonel Karl Bergqvist, head of the Swedish air warfare centre, said on 1 October that if Sweden is attacked its air force is considering strikes on targets deep inside Russian territory to make an attack costly. The same day Russian border guards detained a Cyprus-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Finland bound for the Estonian port of Sillamae.

At the close on 1 October the yuan stood at 12.414 roubles on the Moscow Exchange, up 4.2 kopecks from the previous close, as the rouble corrected after strengthening earlier in the week. Trading activity was subdued because of the Chinese holiday. The Central Bank cut its official dollar rate from 2 October by 31.34 kopecks to 83.2454 roubles and the euro rate by 35.58 kopecks to 94.5252. The same day, on reports that China had suspended oil product exports, December Brent futures rose 3.47% to $101.42 a barrel.

Rosstat data show consumer prices rose 0.12% between 22 and 28 September, up from 0.06% the previous week; annual inflation calculated from weekly dynamics eased to 6.25% from 6.26%, with prices up 4.93% since the start of the year. Central Bank deputy chairman Alexei Zabotkin said on 1 October that the October rate decision would be driven by the full set of incoming data, not just the budget factor, and that the three-year budget parameters match the Banks July expectations. PSB analyst Denis Popov argued a resumption of rate cuts in October is unlikely for now, as regulated utility and transport tariffs rose noticeably from 1 October.

VTB Bank on 1 October published its observations on digital rouble users and described a typical profile of that audience. The digital rouble is still being rolled out in a limited mode, with the Central Bank having repeatedly postponed a full-scale launch. The bank also noted that the Central Banks October rate decision will affect the attractiveness of savings and credit products.

Moscow on 1 October officially launched the 2026-2027 heating season, with heat supplied to the citys housing stock. Forecasters warned the same day of cooling in the capital over the weekend. The start of the heating season means the city energy system moves to full load and coincides with the rise in utility tariffs from 1 October.

According to the three-year budget materials, maternity capital for a second child will exceed 1 million roubles in 2027 and caps on temporary disability and maternity benefits will rise. The same package allocates 308.3 billion roubles for culture and cinema. On the revenue side, alcohol excise receipts may rise 10% in 2027 while the tax on deposit interest could bring the budget nearly 1 trillion roubles.

Russia said on 1 October that an allergy vaccine will enter civilian circulation in October. It also confirmed that personalised therapeutic vaccines for cancer patients are provided free of charge in Russia. Both announcements come from the health ministry system and continue the rollout of domestic biomedical developments in recent years.

The F. L. Miller mansion on St Isaacs Square in central St Petersburg caught fire at 20:11 on 1 October, with the blaze covering 2,000 square metres and being raised to the third rank at 21:12. The emergencies ministry deployed 37 units of equipment and 165 personnel, laying trunk lines from the Neva; the building was under reconstruction and empty, with no injuries reported. Flames spread to the roof of a neighbouring building, nearby residents were evacuated and traffic around the square was closed. The mansion was rebuilt in the eclectic style by architect Ferdinand Miller in 1872, and plans to convert it into elite housing were reported in spring 2026. Open flame was declared extinguished at 01:45 the following day.

A production building at the Krasnozavodsk chemical plant in the Sergiyev Posad district of the Moscow region caught fire on 1 October; an operational headquarters was set up on site and the fire was later localised. Interfax reported it at 20:57, and REGNUM the same day quoted acting district head Alexei Luzhetsky on the response. Fires were also reported elsewhere in the Moscow region and in St Petersburg during the day.

The Russian Defence Ministry said on 1 October that air defences intercepted and destroyed 227 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones between 08:00 and 20:00 over the Kaluga, Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Tula and Voronezh regions among others. As a result, airports in Vnukovo, Sochi, Zhukovsky, Penza, Samara, Saratov, Ulyanovsk and Kaliningrad repeatedly imposed restrictions or suspended operations through the day, with some later returning to normal. In addition, one person was killed by a drone explosion in Grayvoron, Belgorod region, and one resident was wounded in Shebekino.

Monitoring by the Russian Grain Union shows Russia shipped about 1.7 million tonnes of main grain types in September, roughly a quarter of last years volume: wheat shipments fell to 1.36 million tonnes (from 5.4 million), barley to 215.5 thousand tonnes and corn to 103 thousand. Wheat destinations shrank from 37 countries to 12, exporting companies from 76 to 23 and transhipment ports from 45 to 22. As the Azov-Black Sea direction faltered, Baltic ports gained share: Ust-Luga handled 530.2 thousand tonnes and Vysotsk 342 thousand (9.5 times last years 36 thousand). Novorossiysk shipments fell to 177.8 thousand tonnes. Season-to-date exports stand at 5.4 million tonnes against 14.4 million a year earlier.

The Russian Prosecutor Generals Office filed a lawsuit against Freedom Holding founder Timur Turlov on 1 October, Expert magazine reported that evening. The group runs financial services in Russia including brokerage and banking, and its instruments have previously traded in Kazakhstan and the United States. The specific claims and amount were not disclosed in the report.

A Crew Dragon spacecraft carrying a Roscosmos cosmonaut lifted off on 1 October, reached orbit and set course for the ISS. It is another execution of the Russian-US cross-flight agreement, under which Russian cosmonauts continue to fly to the station aboard American commercial crew vehicles. Orbital insertion was confirmed later the same evening.

Infoline forecasts Russian independent e-commerce (online sales excluding universal marketplaces) turnover at ₽5.75 trn in 2026, up 25.8% year on year — the first acceleration since 2023 (+22.5% in 2025, +17.6% in 2024, +10.4% in 2023). The segment share of online retail rises to 34.9%, up 2 pp. AKIT expects total e-commerce at ₽15.8 trn with ₽5 trn from independent channels, while Data Insight sees overall online trade growth slowing from 19% to 15%. The main driver of outflow is seller load: in Q2 2026 combined commissions and logistics spending on leading universal channels exceeded 40%, alongside infrastructure attack risks and rising transaction costs. APET notes some marketplaces now position themselves as logistics companies — sellers can use Yandex Delivery without being a Yandex Market seller. Impact on Chinese sellers: higher costs on universal platforms is confirmed; the case for launching own stores is inference — cost structures differ for Russian and cross-border sellers, applicability unconfirmed.

Russia's digital platform law took effect on 1 October, governing relations between intermediary digital platform operators, their partners and users in sales of goods, works and services. The Ministry of Economic Development published the register of intermediary digital platforms with 13 companies: Wildberries, Ozon, Avito, Yandex Market, Yandex Go, Yandex Eda, Yandex Travel, Yandex Smena, Yandex Delivery, Kuper, Lamoda, Delivery Club and AliExpress; the ministry is still assessing others. Criteria: average daily audience above 100,000 plus either more than 10,000 active partners or partner turnover through the platform above ₽50 bn in the prior year. Versus the 30 September item (law effective 1 October, preliminary list of 12), the new elements are the full list and the qualification thresholds. Impact on Chinese sellers: AliExpress inclusion is confirmed; whether cross-border partners face the same verification is unconfirmed — rules for Russian sellers cannot be assumed to transfer.

Russian Railways reported September 2026 network loading of 90.3 mn tonnes, down 1.2% year on year. Freight turnover rose 3.4% to 206.3 bn tariff tonne-km; including empty wagon run, +1.1% to 251.1 bn tonne-km. The company attributes higher turnover amid lower loading to rerouting of flows and longer haul distances. September loading rose for grain (+9%), cement (+7.3%), non-ferrous ore (+6.5%), industrial raw materials (+2.7%), ferrous metals (+2.5%) and scrap (+50.2%). January–September loading was 824.4 mn tonnes (-0.7%), with "other cargo, including the listed categories shipped in containers" at 86.5 mn tonnes (+3.9%) and grain +42.2%. Impact on Chinese sellers: the volume and haul data are confirmed; the knock-on effect on China–Russia transit times and rates is inference, applicability unconfirmed.

The appendix to the Main Directions of Tax and Budget Policy, submitted to the State Duma with the three-year federal budget bill, proposes raising duties on imports of strong alcohol, beer and beer drinks from unfriendly countries to €5 per litre. Currently strong alcohol (spirits, whisky, rum, gin, liqueurs and other spirit drinks) carries a 20% ad valorem duty but not less than €3 per litre; beer €1.5 per litre. The explanatory note does not disclose the resulting rate structure but says the increase would add ₽30 bn to the budget in 2027–2029 (about ₽10 bn a year). The measure is still a draft and has not been enacted. Impact on Chinese sellers: alcohol is not a mainstream cross-border category, so direct applicability is unconfirmed; whether the "unfriendly-country list plus specific minimum rate" approach extends to small parcels and everyday consumer goods is inference and needs monitoring.

Russia's Finance Ministry has submitted amendments to the Tax Code: if a seller fails to appear when summoned to give testimony or fails to provide requested documents (the measure can apply no earlier than one month after the deadline expires), the tax service sends an instruction simultaneously to all digital platform operators displaying that partner's goods, works or services. The marketplace must comply within two days and notify the tax authority. Once the seller appears or submits documents, the authority must within two days instruct restoration of order acceptance and card display. The draft also obliges intermediary digital platform operators to identify risks of incorrect calculation (withholding) or incomplete/late payment of taxes, duties and insurance contributions by sellers, according to a list to be set by the Federal Tax Service; after notification the seller has 30 days to submit rebutting documents, which are forwarded to the tax authority. Failure to execute instructions or tax-control duties would carry a ₽100,000 fine. The Ministry says the aim is better tax administration. The amendments are not yet adopted. Impact on Chinese sellers: closer platform–tax data integration is confirmed as direction; whether and how it applies to foreign sellers is unconfirmed — Russian seller rules cannot be assumed to transfer.

Amendments to part two of the Russian Tax Code took effect on 1 October: the reduced 10% VAT rate on children's goods now applies only with documentary confirmation that the goods are intended for children — a certificate of conformity or a declaration of conformity. Without confirmation the standard rate applies. Presidential adviser Elena Yampolskaya announced this at a briefing on 1 October, saying the measure will raise the quality of goods intended for children. Impact on Chinese sellers: for those selling children's clothing, toys and children's products on Russian platforms the impact is confirmed — valid certificates or declarations must be obtained or renewed in advance, otherwise tax is charged at the standard rate. The exact standard rate and top-up procedure were not confirmed from official sources here, applicability unconfirmed.

Monitoring by the Russian national fishery resources institute shows that in the week of 21–27 September 2026 Far East sockeye wholesale price was ₽1,100/kg (+36.1% y/y), chum ₽800/kg (+73.9%) and pink salmon ₽650/kg (+97%). Prices began rising from late June when the salmon season opened. As of 29 September, VNIRO data show 98.4 kt of salmon caught against market expectations of more than double: chum 34.2 kt (-42.4%), sockeye 18.8 kt (-56.1%), coho 3.6 kt (-62.3%), pink salmon 41.6 kt. Fishing in the main areas is closed. Market participants attribute the failure primarily to natural factors, above all warmer water. Salmon exports in January–June were 15.8 kt (+17%) but are likely to fall for the full year as high domestic prices discourage exports; the federal fisheries agency cites a company that redirected its entire volume to the domestic market. Imported and Russian farmed trout wholesale around ₽800/kg, roughly level with pink salmon. Impact on Chinese sellers: lower Russian red fish supply to China is confirmed as an industry trend; the category opportunity for Chinese sellers is inference, applicability unconfirmed.

Official Bank of Russia rates effective 1 October (rate file dated 01.10.2026): USD 83.5588, EUR 94.8810, CNY 12.4732 rubles. The same day the central bank set rates effective 2 October: USD cut 31.34 kopecks to 83.2454, EUR cut 35.58 kopecks to 94.5252. On the Moscow Exchange the yuan stood at 12.414 rubles at 19:00, up 4.2 kopecks from the previous close; Chinese exchanges are closed until 7 October for the National Day holiday, leaving trading thin. Banks forecast an October dollar/ruble range of 83–87 and a yuan range of 12.3–12.8. Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin said the October rate decision will consider all incoming data, not only the budget factor. Impact on Chinese sellers: ruble strengthening on official rates and weakening against the yuan are confirmed — yuan-denominated settlement needs recalculation.

The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced large-scale sanctions against A7 Network; the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network banned fund transfers involving A7 Network sub-agents and issued a warning to financial institutions on detecting and reporting related suspicious activity. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the measures continue efforts to isolate Iran and its financial facilitators and signal that those aiding illicit finance for US adversaries will lose access to the American financial system. The A7 international payments platform launched in 2024, owned by A7-Agent and led by Moldovan businessman Ilan Shor; it handles payments to any country at a 0.3% fee, with the main settlement currencies being the yuan, US dollar, euro and UAE dirham, others possible on request. It has been on the EU sanctions list since July 2025 and was first hit by US sanctions in August 2025; this round widens them. A7 told RBC that the sanctions will not affect operations and that cross-border settlement services remain fully available. Impact on Chinese sellers: higher compliance and disruption risk when repatriating funds through such channels is confirmed; whether any Chinese sellers are already affected is unknown — no evidence found.

The EU sanctioned the operator and payment centre of the Zolotaya Korona remittance system (RNKO Payment Centre) on 23 July 2026; in mid-August KoronaPay Europe voluntarily gave up its European licence, and in September the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan revoked the operator's licence. As a result, in August 2026 transfers from Russia to Kazakhstan fell to 239 mn tenge (about ₽45.5 mn), down almost twelvefold; the reverse flow from Kazakhstan to Russia was 1.2 bn tenge (₽228.2 mn), down more than fourteenfold; transfers from Russia to Georgia were $5.1 mn, a more-than-20-year low, while flows from Georgia to Russia fell to zero in August from $3.7 mn in July. Zolotaya Korona's share of Kazakhstan's external transactions fell from 78% in July (80–85% in April–May), with Western Union taking about 81% in August versus roughly 20% in June. Expert RA lead analyst Yevgeny Romanov notes the system relied on a vast partner network, cash payouts and no-account operation, and that no equivalent cheap and fast replacement exists; he expects the market to stabilise in 2027 via cryptocurrencies and transfers, but at higher cost and possibly slower or less convenient service, with a possible rise in informal channels for Kyrgyzstan. Impact on Chinese sellers: tightening of CIS remittance channels is confirmed; direct impact on the China corridor is inference, applicability unconfirmed.

Versus the 30 September item, which already carried the same weekly inflation figures, the new element is a new effective date: regulated tariffs (utilities, transport and others) rose from 1 October, which institutions expect could accelerate inflation. Rosstat data: prices rose 0.12% over 22–28 September after +0.06% the previous week; +0.25% since the start of the month and +4.93% since the start of the year. Annual inflation by the central bank's method eased to 6.25% (6.26% a week earlier); by the Economic Development Ministry's method it accelerated to 6.26% (6.22%). Rosstat will publish exact September figures on 9 October. PSB analyst Denis Popov notes that secondary effects of the fuel shock and the ruble weakening realised in Q3 are increasingly visible; resilient demand, driven by wage growth (accrued wages +12.2% y/y in January–July) and stronger credit activity, still lets businesses pass higher costs into prices. The forecast dollar/ruble range for October is 83–87. Impact on Chinese sellers: rising retail prices and delivery costs are confirmed; the degree of pass-through into platform pricing headroom is inference, applicability unconfirmed.