Russia E-commerce Intelligence Daily 2026-09-14

The BRICS summit in New Delhi closed on 13 September with the BRICS+ outreach session attended by Putin. He said the BRICS+ format has proven itself as a platform for direct, open dialogue between members and partners, calling BRICS one of the main driving forces of genuine multilateralism and a fairer multipolar world. Intra-bloc trade has reached $1.2 trillion - nearly a quarter of world exports - and the bloc accounts for 49% of world GDP growth. Putin again proposed a BRICS payment and settlement-depository infrastructure, a reinsurance mechanism and a grain exchange; the NDB has financed 123 projects worth nearly $40 billion, and he urged updating its business model and building a new investment platform to channel long-term capital, including private money, into the Global South and East. He also noted that AI, autonomous systems and digital trade platforms are changing the very model of economic value creation.

Vedomosti's wrap: the two-day summit ended on 13 September in the BRICS+ format, attended by 8 of the club's 10 leaders (including Putin and Pezeshkian, without Brazil's and the UAE's presidents) plus as many partners. The headline success was a consensus declaration signed by Iran and the UAE despite their direct military confrontation in 2026, after foreign ministers failed to agree in May; per Berliner Zeitung, the stumbling block was a paragraph assessing the US-Israel war on Iran, and the final text named no one. The 140-point declaration also omitted Ukraine, unlike 2024-25. Xi Jinping skipped the business forum and gala dinner and left India early on his first visit in seven years, though his separate meeting with Modi continued the normalization begun at Kazan 2024; Modi proposed a BRICS Continuity and Implementation Mechanism (troika), while Xi tabled five initiatives including open-source AI accessibility. Peskov said provisions important to Russia on investment and national-currency settlements made it in, but the wording still lacks specificity; China hosts the 2027 summit.

Trump said in Ireland on Sunday that Zelensky has to do one thing - stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia: he can hit other targets, but not diesel, because he is causing a shortage, insisting it was not the Middle East's doing. Context: US average diesel prices topped a record $6 per gallon on Friday; the IEA reported Gulf diesel net exports in August at just over a quarter of pre-war levels, with the Gulf and Russia having supplied nearly 45% of global seaborne trade in these fuels in February; Russia banned diesel exports in July and refinery runs hit a 24-year low last month. The mediation track advanced the same day: Dmitriev said Kushner understands Russia's position well and conveyed Moscow's peace plan to Ukraine (Kushner and Witkoff were received by Putin in Moscow on 5 September and met Zelensky in Kiev on 6 September; Putin and Trump spoke by phone on 8 September); Kushner himself called the trips very successful. Zelensky's office said the envoys brought no new ideas. The US House takes up the Russia sanctions bill on 14 September.

Trump said on Sunday the US may take control of Iranian oil, while the US energy secretary allowed nuclear fuel supplies to Iran if it abandons enrichment (Vedomosti). The meeting of Gulf and Iranian foreign ministers was postponed, leaving Hormuz shipping unresolved - Brent rose in early Monday trading (Friday's November close was $105.06, up about 9% on the week). Explosions were also reported in southern Iran. Tehran had earlier handed Washington seven conditions for reopening the strait.

Polish PM Tusk said on Sunday he expects an escalation of the conflict with Russia; Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova hit back at Polish FM Sikorski, accusing him of cerebral Russophobia after his call for aggressive NATO exercises near Kaliningrad. In the Nordics, Lithuania briefly closed Vilnius airport over a suspected drone and scrambled NATO jets - the target turned out to be a flock of birds; Russian diplomats said Norway bears full responsibility for the degradation of relations.

Preliminary results from Sweden's Sunday parliamentary election show the opposition bloc leading; in Germany, Bavaria's premier spoke of a crisis in the country after the AfD won the Saxony state election (Merz's party had suffered a heavy defeat there). The continued rise of right-wing forces across Europe and its knock-on effects on Russia policy warrant close attention.

From Saturday night into Sunday morning Ukrainian drones raided Russia's deep rear. In Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, the office of regional head Minnikhanov reported 2 killed and 12 injured; Mayor Belyaev said industrial and civilian sites were hit with a fire at one enterprise (production not stopped), four people were hurt in a residential-block strike, and a drone crashed into a tree by a parked car - two of the four young men inside were killed and two seriously injured. Nizhnekamsk lies over 1,200 km from Ukraine, one of the deepest acknowledged strikes; it hosts the TANECO and TAIF-NK refineries and Nizhnekamskneftekhim (Ukraine's DIU claims TANECO units were hit, unconfirmed by Russia). The Slavyansk-EKO refinery in Slavyansk-on-Kuban (about 5.2 million tonnes a year, roughly 9% of southern refining capacity) caught fire with 3 injured and an oil pipeline damaged. The Defense Ministry said 389 UAVs were downed overnight over regions and three seas; Rostov's governor reported 60+ intercepted over his region; temporary airport restrictions hit Bugulma, Kirov, Izhevsk, Nizhnekamsk and Makhachkala.

Between 8:00 and 20:00 on Sunday air defense downed 140 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs over Russian regions (Vedomosti/TASS citing the Defense Ministry), rebounding sharply from 97 on 10 September, 67 on the 11th and 53 on the 12th. On the border and in the rear: a mother and daughter were concussed by a drone strike in Belgorod region late Sunday; in the DPR, 3 civilians were killed and 13 wounded including a child over the day (Pushilin); two more drones were downed over Penza region early Monday.

Rosatom CEO Alexey Likhachev said on 13 September that since Saturday evening the Zaporozhye NPP training center had been struck more than 10 times, and fuel trucks near the plant were hit, killing 2 and wounding others, including Russian servicemen, some seriously. He accused Kiev of provoking a nuclear incident and demanded the IAEA condemn the attacks. The plant had only restored external power on 7 September.

The Defense Ministry, via TASS, said Sunday strikes destroyed an Odesa logistics center with warehouses holding Ukrainian army cargoes; Vedomosti confirmed hits on enterprises and warehouses in the city. The ministry also said it keeps striking western Ukrainian rail infrastructure used to move European military aid. Ukrainian officials (not independently verified) said 9 people were hurt in a massive overnight attack on Odesa and that Saturday's strike on a high-rise killed 2 and wounded 26; a mainline locomotive was hit 2 km from the Polish border, a gas station burned near the Yahodyn crossing, and a diplomatic train carrying European advisers and former officials departed early under threat.

Leningrad region governor Drozdenko said the region is considering alternate-day refueling by odd and even license plates, with the immediate goal of keeping demand within 20-30 liter daily limits. He said recent drone attacks on major refineries had cut AI-92/95 gasoline output in the region (diesel is available) and the crisis will not end before October. Rospotrebnadzor banned gas stations from refusing to fill canisters on 11 September; the nationwide squeeze has lasted weeks, and this week's strikes on the Nizhnekamsk and Slavyansk refineries will tighten regional supply further.

Vedomosti's market take: the Saudi pipeline incident could cut world oil supply by 4%. Brent rose in early Monday trading after the Hormuz shipping meeting was postponed (Friday's November close was $105.06, up about 9% on the week, with prices above $108 intraweek). The US-Iran standoff, Houthi actions in the Red Sea and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are compounding the squeeze, keeping product cracks strong.

Vedomosti reports Russia may reduce or scrap the e-visa fee for Indian citizens, while the Ministry of Economic Development is urging a major increase in Russia-India flights. People-to-people and business facilitation is accelerating after the BRICS summit, following the visa-free push with Vietnam.

Vedomosti analyzed Russian restaurant brands' expansion into China: the country's food-service market is worth about $745 billion, and Russian players could vie for roughly 2% of it. Chinese chains have already pushed into Russia on a large scale, making two-way brand flows a trend worth watching.

Russian media (Gazeta.Ru and Lenta, citing sources) report that a former Roscosmos deputy director-general held in a pre-trial detention center has been diagnosed with stage-4 cancer, but the investigator will not let him leave for hospital treatment. The official's name and case details have not been disclosed.

RIA Novosti' analysis of the EMISS inter-agency statistics shows Russian per-capita alcohol consumption has fallen to its lowest since 1996. The indicator has been sliding for years (around 7.8 liters per person a year in autumn 2025, with North Caucasian republics drinking least).

The US Open men's final on Sunday went to Germany's Alexander Zverev, whose parents emigrated from Russia. Russia's Karen Khachanov had lost to Zverev in Friday's semifinal.

In Sunday's RPL action, Spartak Moscow thrashed Rostov, while league leaders Krasnodar only just salvaged a draw at bottom side Akron, eroding their lead; Akhmat beat Dynamo. Results of day one at the world sambo championship were also announced.

Russian track-and-field athletes sent a joint letter to the UN and the IOC demanding readmission to international competition, and World Athletics was reported to be urging a resolution of the Russian question. In figure skating, Russians won the Challenger event in Boston, but the AIN anthem could not be played at the medal ceremony, days after the ISU stripped Valiyeva and two other skaters of neutral status.

A scientist told RIA Novosti that Rosatom is developing a plasma rocket engine, a new electric-propulsion direction viewed as a candidate for deep-space missions.

On 13 September Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration said it continues to engage Wildberries and Ozon — through diplomatic channels and their legal entities — to protect local entrepreneurs. No final data on the scale of losses or the number of affected Kazakh sellers has reached the ministry; Wildberries attributes this to an ongoing inventory of goods with no stated completion date. Minister Arman Shakkaliyev had already requested loss data from Wildberries back in August. Wildberries logistics sites have been hit since mid-July and Ozon warehouses since late August; both launched inventories and support measures. What it means for Chinese sellers: if you stock goods in Kazakh warehouses or sell through a Kazakh legal entity, the compensation basis is still undefined — do not rely solely on platform notices; keep intake acts, stock snapshots and SKU lists as evidence for claims and reconciliation.

Late on 13 September Leningrad region governor Aleksandr Drozdenko said he «sees light at the end of the tunnel»: by early October new supplies should arrive, new logistics chains be built and refineries under maintenance restart. At the region’s request several large oil companies have already decided to raise deliveries to their own filling stations, some doubling volumes to cover for refineries down for maintenance. Authorities are weighing odd-number/even-number refuelling on alternate days, with a current target of securing at least 20–30 litres per vehicle per day. Diesel remains available. He blamed the disruption on drone attacks on major refineries including Kirishinefteorgsintez; the region is rerouting supply through other plants with oil majors. What it means for Chinese sellers: the St Petersburg–Moscow corridor is one of the main customs clearance and last-mile routes, so trucking rates and transit times will stay volatile for the rest of September — build slack into shipping plans and do not route all peak-season replenishment through a single corridor.

On 13 September Kommersant detailed the backdrop to Governor Nabiullina’s 11 September announcement of a ₽165 bn recapitalisation of RNPC: as of end-July the company’s aggregate liability under terrorism and sabotage reinsurance contracts exceeds ₽8 tn while formed reserves stand at ₽100 bn. Even after the injection, capital would remain under ₽200 bn against existing central bank guarantees of ₽750 bn, so experts see room for another recapitalisation. Central bank data shows first-half property insurance payouts market-wide — including corporate drone-damage cover — roughly doubled to ₽16.6 bn, with RNPC’s share of payouts up 29 pp to 77.8%. Nabiullina said RNPC effectively reinsures all terrorism and sabotage risks while still serving key industries on preferential terms. What it means for Chinese sellers: the ceiling on real payouts is set by reinsurance capacity, not platform goodwill; watch the Ingostrakh payment schedule starting 15 September, and whether warehouse cargo cover remains purchasable and at what premium.

On 13 September a draft government resolution prepared by the industry ministry and posted on regulation.gov.ru proposed extending state price monitoring to 24 food items from January 1, 2027: beef, pork, mutton, chicken, fish, butter, sunflower oil, milk, cheese, eggs, sugar, salt, flour, bread, rice, buckwheat, pasta, plus potatoes, beetroot, onions, carrots, tomatoes, cucumbers and cabbage. The draft also lists the agencies entitled to receive FTS data on producers, suppliers and sellers of these goods: the industry, agriculture and economic development ministries, the FAS and Rosstat. The explanatory note describes monitoring at all stages of goods movement to detect sharp price rises and respond. The measure implements amendments to the trade regulation law signed on 4 August and taking effect on January 1, 2027. What it means for Chinese sellers: prices in food and fresh categories on marketplaces will come under inter-agency scrutiny, so increases must be cost-justified; more importantly, linking tax and price data sharply raises the risk of under-reporting schemes combined with high turnover.

On 13 September senator Artyom Sheykin warned of a new fraud scheme: scammers send paper letters demanding that recipients «correct a tax declaration», then follow up with electronic notices claiming new documents are available in the taxpayer account, containing a link to a phishing clone of the FTS website; credentials entered there are stolen. He stressed that a letterhead logo and official tone prove nothing, and advised logging into the taxpayer account manually and cross-checking via Gosuslugi. The FTS has previously stated that official notices arrive only via the personal account or by post and contain nothing but a notice number and a pointer that the document is viewable in the service — no details and no direct links. What it means for Chinese sellers: from 1 October, when the platform economy law takes effect, marketplaces will report seller income to the tax service monthly, so tax-related correspondence will multiply — never follow links in «notices» demanding payment or corrections; verify by logging in yourself.

On 13 September RBC reported that Chinese electronics manufacturers are moving production abroad en masse: the share of companies with overseas capacity has risen from 12% to 56% over nine years, and examined what this means for the global market and for Russia. What it means for Chinese sellers: the «country of origin» on an invoice will increasingly not be China, so origin determination, HS classification and conformity documents (EAC, certificates) must be reissued for the actual origin or both customs clearance and platform onboarding will stall; dispersed capacity also lengthens production cycles, so peak-season replenishment must be locked in earlier.

On 13 September in New Delhi, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the declaration includes provisions important to Russia, specifically joint settlement centers, a joint investment platform and a common platform for settlements in national currencies. This is the first time Moscow has explicitly stated that its own proposed mechanisms made it into the final document. What it means for Chinese sellers: this is still a framework rather than a usable channel, so ruble-yuan settlement speed will not change in the near term; what matters is whether a work schedule, a list of participating institutions and a currency scope follow — until then, keep existing settlement routes and do not re-plan around this.

On 13 September Rosstat confirmed Q2 GDP growth of 1.3% y/y (after a 0.2% contraction in Q1) and 0.6% for H1, with quarterly output at ₽56.2 tn. The estimate held even though industrial production dynamics were revised downward — which is why the economy ministry withheld its own Q2 estimate. By sector, the fastest growth was in hotels and restaurants (+5.8%), information and communications (+5.5%), transport and storage (+4.0%), finance and insurance (+2.9%) and trade (+2.8%), while mining fell 1.6%. The INP RAS warns all three supports weaken in H2: the budget impulse cannot be repeated given accumulated deficit and front-loaded procurement, household demand will be capped by slowing real disposable income, and restocking room is exhausted, with H1 investment already down 9.9%. In August the S&P Global composite output index rose from 49.6 to 50.6, back in expansion territory for the first time in six months, driven by services. What it means for Chinese sellers: growth is coming from circulation and services rather than production, so demand exists but is inelastic — calibrate peak-season discounts more precisely and do not count on demand expanding on its own.

According to the United Credit Bureau (OKB), Russian banks opened 1.54 mn new credit card contracts in August 2026, up 11% m/m and 9% y/y, the highest since early 2025. Total credit limits rose to ₽173.39 bn, the highest since early 2026, while the average limit per card fell ₽6,000 m/m to ₽113,000; the total cost of credit on cards was 50.5%. VTB posted its strongest sales of the year, while Alfa-Bank attributed growth to a new 150-day grace card and seasonality. Analysts stress the record is in volumes, not credit expansion: cooling-off rules push banks toward smaller limits below ₽50,000 and ₽200,000, and issuance fell 43% in 2025, so the market is recovering from a very low base. In 2024 credit cards accounted for 25–27% of overdue portfolios put up for sale, so banks keep cutting limits for risky holders. What it means for Chinese sellers: instalments and credit remain the key lever for high-ticket conversion, but aggregate limits are rising while average limits fall, so big purchases increasingly rely on stacked products — for items above ₽15,000, set up instalment and interest-free options in advance.